What likelihood would you give chances the storm shifts West again? Just going to have to play it by ear after that. I’m with you on feeling bad for the folks east of us. ECMWF (EURO) Model Guidance/ Analysis FSU Tropical Model Outputs FSU Tropical Cyclone Genesis Penn State Tropical E-Wall NOAA HFIP Ruc Models Navy NRL TC Page College of DuPage Model Guidance WXCharts Model Guidance NOAA NHC Analysis Tools NOAA NHC ATCF Directory NOAA NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking NOAA NCEP/EMC HWRF Model NOAA HFIP Model Products … But it is really difficult to say much beyond this without better knowledge of Laura’s track and intensity. Do you want to get stuck in evacuation traffic? Eric and Matt, I started following you gents during Harvey. Suite 250 Furthermore, the center appears to be tracking almost due west. thanks so much for being my favorite weather nerds! This reduces the threat of inland rainfall. Let us be clear: We are not saying that is going to happen. They were both sent by God to keep us safe! This could be one of the worst U.S. surge events in recent memory. I won’t be certain about this storm until it is too late for it to turn even an inch. These organizations have way more resources at hand than small orgs, and even the Cajun Navy, astounding as it was, was limited in what they could do. We, along with most of Houston evacuated for Rita – remember that fiasco? Because of the broad uncertainty in the global model ensembles we are still reasonably looking at a track anywhere from Matagorda Bay, up through Houston, Beaumont, and across much of the Louisiana coast. The storm surge was supposed to be “equivalent to a category 5 storm” because Ike was large, although it had barely Cat 1 winds at landfall. Agree, don’t add to the hassles of evacuation for the folks that actually live there. As always, I marvel at your clear concise analysis. The surge itself went inland maybe 2 blocks, impacting only houses immediately on the very coast of Clear Lake/Galveston Bay. Even made coffee with water boiled on the stove.
pic.twitter.com/kzuwTaU11I, — Jack Sillin | weather.us (@JackSillin) August 26, 2020, In fact, the 18z European operational model takes Laura just over the Louisiana side of the border, in line with tropical models. I appreciate all the daily emails about your weather forecast and the multiple forecasts when we have a storm coming like this one. Congratulations and thank you. That means less heat in the water when it’s done. This would not create some kind of “super storm” but may play some role in the track of Laura. For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10. Remember that there are a few important variables working to determine how strong Laura will get. And, yes, I’m quite worried for our fellow Texans in places like Orange, Beaumont, Winnie, Port Arthur and other towns and communities at high risk, as well as our neighbors in Louisianna. It also provided a perspective of incipient developments related with data exploration, forecast products and predictability drivers, which will shape the future of seamless forecasting systems. Hotels in Austin and Dallas are going quickly now, better make your bookings soon if you’re thinking about leaving. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. Adding a bit more—once the immediate danger has passed, look for LOCAL organizations in the affected areas and ask what they need. The caveat to all this?

However, Laura does have the potential to produce strong-to-devastating winds as well as produce a storm surge, driving water 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels. If there is a medical reason why this is unacceptable for you, factor that in. I think it’s possible to see a weaker Marco and stronger Laura in the near-term because Marco isn’t really influencing Laura much at the moment. https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/09/12/restoring-power-what-houston-learned-from-ike/, http://hurricane.egr.uh.edu/sites/hurricane.egr.uh.edu/files/files/2009/wei.pdf, https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/projects/ike08/HurricaneWorkshop09.pdf (page 8). Remember that tropical cyclones produce lots of warm upper-level outflow.

Unfortunately, Laura’s storm surge impact into extreme east Texas and southwest Louisiana looks very serious.

Thanks for the update but heartbreaking for east Texas and western Louisiana.

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